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View Full Version : Finally the Iowa caucus is today.



TBD
01-03-2008, 06:10 AM
.....Where the state that is 92% white and has never voted a woman into congress can basically decide who is the frontrunner and who gets unmeasurable amounts of media coverage and basically can narrow the presidential race into a final 4 of sorts. Or even decide it when John Kerry bust into the lead in the democratic nomination.

Here are some things I predict will happen with this caucus:

Obama will win the democratic vote, Edwards will get second, Hilary will get a very close third. (Edwards is almost dead in the water if he gets a distant third here, I believe he will do better than expected, don't underestimate the rich white male with expensive haircuts)

Huckabee will beat Romney very narrowly, even though Huckabee is getting raped by the media for his showing of the attack add he pulled (which is well deserved criticism)

I love watching power hungry elites try to act as if they can relate to the normal person in Iowa. I know Barack is thinking at the back of his mind how fucking stupid it is to be campaigning non stop in one state, then in New Hampshire, and how it trumps anything you can do in say, California or New York, a state with actual importance and a large population.

I also think Rudy Guiliani, and Fred Thompsons campaigns aren't going anywhere on the republican side. I think the republican candidacy will go to either Huckabee, Romney, or John McCain.

The democratic nomination is way too close to call between Edwards Obama and Clinton. Clinton has a huge nationwide lead, but Iowa news coverage can destroy that in a matter of days.

ninthlayer
01-03-2008, 06:13 AM
I can see my caucus site from my apartment.

TBD
01-03-2008, 06:16 AM
You should go and be the one guy who votes for Kucinich.

ninthlayer
01-03-2008, 07:31 AM
I don't think Kucinich is going to be viable enough to caucus for =/.

TBD
01-03-2008, 07:58 AM
My thread just got a death sentence. No one will read it now.

I don't fully understand how caucuses work. It sounds like a ridiculously hard process that takes way too much time. Another way to prevent the poor black woman with two jobs from voting in my opinion. Jim Crow 2008 for the loss.

Mota Boy
01-03-2008, 08:30 AM
Another way to prevent the poor black woman with two jobs from voting in my opinion. Jim Crow 2008 for the loss.So, it'll be harder for all eight black people in Iowa to vote? Somehow, I don't think that will have a huge impact.

Also, I think it's interesting that Nevada and South Carolina were bumped up in order to add diversity to the early primary states, when every one of the early states - Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada - is a fairly conservative locale.

TBD
01-03-2008, 08:40 AM
It's not the impact that matters, as I think that Obama will handily win Iowa either way, but the fact that barriers to voting has had a very shitty place in American history, and the fact that it takes 2 hours to vote in the democratic caucus is pretty ridiculous, and for a lot of poor people who don't have the luxury to waste that time, its a barrier to vote.

sKratch
01-03-2008, 09:48 AM
Yeah I have no idea what caucusing is.

Jakebert
01-03-2008, 11:25 AM
Even though I'm 18 and haven't voted yet in my life, I'm already getting tired of politics. I've been paying attention to this race since the get-go, since it'll be my first time voting, and I honestly get headaches from paying attention to it now.

The entire thing is based on who could win, not on who's the best candidate. Every single candidate is running on "I can beat so-and-so" rather than an actual platform. Sure, this happens in every election to a certain extent, but this year the only person I've seen not do that is Thompson, but unfortunatly, he won't win because no one gives a fuck about honesty and integrity, which is why McCain has never made a big dent until he decided to sell out.

The entire right-wing has become based completely on "anyone but Clinton!", which pisses me off because of how much they made fun of "anyone but Bush!" in 2004. Don't get me wrong, they were right to make fun of the Democrats for that because it is a stupid way to vote, but the right is being beyond hypocritical here. This alone makes me dislike the Republicans running, because much like in 2004, I hated Kerry for simply running against Bush and not actually running for anything of his own.

TDB, I don't see where you think Guiliani won't go anywhere. I think he has a big chance, since he has name recognition and a platform that Bush used to win in 2004: constant references to 9/11.

Out of the Republicans, I like Ron Paul or McCain. Neither are perfect, but they're the most honest, even if McCain has slowly turned towards being a Republican shill lately. For the Democrats, I'd say I like Obama or Edwards. Obama is a little wide-eyed, but he has good ideas. Clinton tries a little too hard to pander to audiences, and she seems like she'd be just as stubborn as Bush if elected.

RickyCrack
01-03-2008, 12:22 PM
i'm voting for tancredo. BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=user&v=JJNHIUrKqR8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LZBjXr5CWUI

ninthlayer
01-03-2008, 12:26 PM
I don't understand why college-aged people would ever support Ron Paul.

NickyNineDoors
01-03-2008, 12:26 PM
there is no worry or doubt about the eventual outcome of the american presidential election, so therefore take a deep breath and eventually exhale

supercomputers, leased to a division of the American Computing and Tabulating Company have already forseen the future, although, as in a continuing daily drama, the race is being played out, mostly for the news media and various associated preordained polling personnell
giant terabyte machines, supercooled to an absolute temperature of 2.9k, installed in national physics laboratories, and other various top secret**locations, have predicted with ease, the next el honcho of the might and valour of the american way*

*note: recently devalued to $1.07 cdn

**note: for more information please refer to the American Computing and Tabulating brochure #132-498cdcjdei.dif94n./AMD?64x395966879684657.91x100,000@596765767.0gh

relax


:D

RickyCrack
01-03-2008, 12:34 PM
you're fucking retarded. Did your computer predict the downfall of Dean's campaign 4 years ago or did it say he'd win the election, i seem to forget.

NickyNineDoors
01-03-2008, 12:44 PM
nope

it predicted bush x 2


and



it predicted the:
saskatchewan rough riders over the winnipeg blue bombers in the 2007 CFL
Grey Cup, although it was a classic nail byter

TBD
01-03-2008, 12:49 PM
Everyone read this brilliant essay by the world's best political thought master:
http://www.offspring.com/forums/showthread.php?t=30817

It refers to voter ignorance and Dean's downfall in 2004.

XYlophonetreeZ
01-03-2008, 12:54 PM
I've been really down on this election lately. Words cannot express how much I hate the notion that "Washington" is some kind of evil force that eats up your soul and corrupts you the second you take a seat in the senate, and that if we elect a senator or US representative we will not see any change, never mind that there are 99 other senators. I want to shoot the TV every time I hear someone talk about how a candidate is "too Washington." Democrats are way too into fresh faces and laughable levels of optimism. The three least experienced candidates are kicking the asses of the four most experienced candidates in the polls. Experience isn't everything, but it will help beat the Republicans in the general election, and guess what, sometimes you have to be a little pragmatic to win elections. I'd much rather see Biden or Richardson in office than any of the three frontrunners, and I also think they'd fare better against Republicans.

As for the Republicans, I'm just hoping for a McCain win in New Hampshire, which is looking like a strong possibility. I don't love John McCain, but given the status in Iowa, I'm a big fan of his right now since Romney is awful and Huckabee is even worse.

On a couple of side notes, Ron Paul supporters are the most annoying people in the world, and Tom Tancredo is probably the single worst human being in the world.

I'm a big fan of the Douglas Adams quote "Anyone who is capable of getting themselves elected president should on no account be allowed to do the job."

NickyNineDoors
01-03-2008, 01:07 PM
ah, these are the times to dust off Cosmos Factory

jacknife737
01-03-2008, 02:06 PM
I think Obama is going to take Iowa, but other then that I’m not sure. The democrat race is just too close to call. Either a ticket involving Obama or Edwards definitely has a better chance of wining then a Clinton ticket, since there is nothing better then the Clinton name to get a relatively disinterested GOP base out to vote.

With the GOP, I think the strongest candidate they could field would be Romney (or even Giuliani, and either of them will probably win the nomination. Yet, Huckabee is certainly a bit of an enigma. I wish McCain was doing better, but is campaign has been going downhill due to funding shortages, etc, however he’s not dead yet.

Ron Paul and Hunter are both terrifying candidates, however, none of them have a chance of being elected. Most of the Ron Paul supporters that I’ve encountered (online and IRL) don’t seem to have any idea of what his policies are, only that “ZOMG!!! He said Iraq was about Oil and US Empire = bad!!!”. One thing I’ve been confused with is how someone can say they support Kucinich and Paul, they're fucking miles apart.

TBD
01-03-2008, 06:26 PM
Obama projected to win Iowa.

Huckabee projected to win Iowa.

MY PREDICTIONS WIN.

ninthlayer
01-03-2008, 06:54 PM
Iowa City Precinct 20:
5 delegates to Obama
2 delegates to Edwards

That process was one of the gayest things I've ever done. Kucinich only had half of the number needed for viability and that made me sad inside. During the second re-alignment the Clinton group were total cockfags because they were something like two people short of viability and kept delaying their count so they could somehow conjure forth those votes. The Obama group had the most annoying fucking cunt possible for a chair.

The worst part of democracy is coming face to face with the public, because it's full of irritating cunts.

TBD
01-03-2008, 07:02 PM
How did Dodd get a delegate and not Kucinich anywhere in Iowa.

Little_Miss_1565
01-03-2008, 07:19 PM
Iowa City Precinct 20:
5 delegates to Obama
2 delegates to Edwards

That process was one of the gayest things I've ever done. Kucinich only had half of the number needed for viability and that made me sad inside. During the second re-alignment the Clinton group were total cockfags because they were something like two people short of viability and kept delaying their count so they could somehow conjure forth those votes. The Obama group had the most annoying fucking cunt possible for a chair.

The worst part of democracy is coming face to face with the public, because it's full of irritating cunts.

Would you please write something detailed about the process? This is brilliant and I want to share it with the world.

ninthlayer
01-03-2008, 07:36 PM
How did Dodd get a delegate and not Kucinich anywhere in Iowa.
Our precinct worked out a deal with the Edwards camp and scored a delegate for Kucinich at county.

TBD
01-03-2008, 08:10 PM
It still says Kucinich has 0 delegates so I'm not sure what is up with that.

I hope Barack wins the democratic nomination. Barack/Edwards 08.

Apathy
01-03-2008, 10:24 PM
My AP government/politics class took a field trip to the Iowa Caucuses today, we ended up going to a Republican one in Debuke. I just got back like twenty minutes ago.

It was so unorganized, it was almost funny.

SkunkIt
01-03-2008, 11:58 PM
I dont like any of the cantudates, but I never do. I don't know why, but I think Tizz should be the president. Our flag would be pink with cherries on it! :D

RickyCrack
01-04-2008, 03:20 AM
My AP government/politics class took a field trip to the Iowa Caucuses today, we ended up going to a Republican one in Debuke. I just got back like twenty minutes ago.

It was so unorganized, it was almost funny.

what the fucking gay!? you were in iowa and you did't let me know!? we're no longer internet buddiez

NickyNineDoors
01-04-2008, 04:33 AM
that was very predictable

ninthlayer
01-04-2008, 05:06 AM
Debuke
lol dubuque

TBD
01-04-2008, 06:26 AM
'Obama will win the democratic vote, Edwards will get second, Hilary will get a very close third.
Huckabee will beat Romney' I AM GVENSIUS

Well, Obama got an incredible 57% of the vote of people under 30. Compared to 14% for Edwards and 11% for Clinton. Obama has managed to capture the young vote, and actually has made non voters come out and vote.

If he is nominated I wonder if he can increase the inner city disenfranchised black voting population which is typically nonexistent, however, 90%+ democrat when they do vote.

If Huckabee is our next president this country is going up in flames. He appears to be a nice guy, a southern gentlemen. So did George W. Bush. He uses religion in his advertising and is exactly what we don't need.

Mitt Romney seems like a solid moderate republican candidate until you see what a douchebag he appears to be, there is no sincerity in his campaign.

HornyPope
01-04-2008, 06:59 AM
I remember Huckabee from a prank played on him by a Canadian comedian, and wow is that guy a moron.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=U8tVbH5NfvQ (about 2 mins in)

ninthlayer
01-04-2008, 07:50 PM
source: http://www.myfellowamericans2008.com/




DATELINE: Iowa City, Iowa

‘Fired up!’
‘Ready to go!’
‘Fired up!’
‘Ready to go!’

200 young people are engaged in call-and-response chanting with each other, crammed in to the corner of the canteen of the Iowa City Senior Citizens Center. In the opposite corner, 30 or so senior citizens wait blankly for the noise to subside, occasionally shaking their heads wearily. It’s a peculiar enough sight in itself; all the more peculiar given that it comes right in the middle of the Iowa Caucus, the first stage of the most important electoral race in the world.

Three hours earlier, at 6pm, things are considerably calmer. Susanna Peters is enthusing about the process that is unique to Iowa and - less famously - Nevada. “I love the caucus. I was here for the first one in 1972. It’s a wonderful opportunity to participate in democracy,” she says, gesturing at a still empty room that will soon transform into a kind of democratic circus. Actually, circuses tend to have fixed programmes of entertainment, fixed designated areas, and widely-understood rules. The caucus at Precinct 20 was more like watching spontaneous democratic combustion.

Thanks to a sly nod and a wink Tom and I sneaked into the caucus room early, with a promise to help move chairs and sandwiches. The atmosphere inside is more bake-sale fundraiser than red-hot crucible of democracy to begin with - but outside the room the embattled chairman Richard Tooey is trying to sign in four times as many people as expected. All at once. The queue snakes outside into the bitter cold (10 Farenheit at best) - comparisons to the first post-apartheid elections in South Africa would be an exaggeration, but these Iowans are remarkably dedicated.

Senior citizens are admitted into the canteen first, and dodder dutifully towards the Hillary corner, for the most part. Edwards and Obama occupy the two other available corners, with flyers and policy brochures speckling the chintzy chairs; the six ’second tier’ candidates are located in smaller areas, mostly under hand-written signs.

The small Dennis Kucinich group bemoan Clinton’s supporters stealing their chairs, but they’re also looking happy. A few are members of a local co-operative, and tell me their initial preference for the most liberal (i.e. left-wing) of the Democratic candidates is a case of choosing the lesser of nine evils.

“If you look at the political compass, all these candidates are so close together,” Julia says. Alex, a philosophy graduate from the university, agrees. “I think people need reminding that a lot of us aren’t happy with the two party system at all.” Another apparent Kucinich-ite chimes in: “I wouldn’t actually vote for Kucinich in the event that he won the nomination - I’d vote third party in the general (election, in November). I’m only here tonight to make my voice heard.”

Little does she know how loud she’ll have to shout to do this tonight.

When the doors finally close the room is absurdly packed - a record 381 people have turned out to vote - we had been told to expect about 100. The clean lines of chairs have been blurred, and the Obama corner spills out to occupy most of the centre of the room. It’s difficult to overstate just how much of a generational divide there is between the Clinton and Obama groups. 90% of Obama’s supporters in the room are under 30; 90% of Clinton’s supporters in the room are over 50. “I’m not sure about their reasons for choosing him,” Clinton precinct captain Dennis will say later, “but I am glad the young people are turning out. It bodes well.”

Caucus rules dictate that any candidate group failing to get 15% is no longer ‘viable’ - they don’t then drop out completely, but have a chance to realign behind another candidate; there are three rounds of this realigning, and the following hour in which they proceed witness the most fast-paced, confusing, and intense bartering seen outside of the New York stock exchange.

Debate in the Kucinich camp is heated - the candidate himself had signalled that his supporters should switch to Obama if he became non-viable in any precinct, but a bright young man called Cory, John Edwards’ precinct captain, is offering a deal within minutes of the debate starting: for the 10 Kucinich supporters they need to attain viability, he’ll offer one of them a chance to be sent as a delegate to the Iowan Democratic hub in Des Moines, where resolutions are then sent on to the Democratic National Convention in the summer.

“What do I have to do to get you over there? We have cookies!” Cody says with a smile.

Headcounts are being done and redone in every corner of the room. “I’m confused” is a regularly heard refrain among the vibrant hubbub. “So let me get this straight…” is another. Joe Biden’s captain makes a move for Hillary, and tries to take his non-plussed fellow supporters with him. People stand on chairs and attempt to martial the chaos. Calls are placed to the Iowa Democratic Party amid the din, checking and re-checking rules.

“Any hairs I had left on my head have been replaced by sweat follicles” Richard gasps at me, smiling through the pressure.

The Hillary gang, expected to be vying with Obama for first place, still aren’t quorate despite a few extra Biden defectors. 56 is the magic number everyone needs for viability, and the younger members of the Clinton gang are getting more desperate:

“We only need three more people for a delegate!” a young woman shouts from atop a plastic chair.

“If you don’t get her in it’s going to be 20 years til we get a woman President” someone shouts above the clamour.

“I’ll raise you ten - make it 30 years!” an Obama supporter shouts, slightly nastily.

“Make Hillary viable! Come on people!”

“Screw Hillary!”

Friendly faces are becoming tightened by the intensity of it all. Richard vainly tries to reassert some authority over the catcalling, chanting Obama supporters and the still vote-seeking Clinton team. Time is running out:

“Come on, they’ve had enough time, pack it in. They can’t keep trying to get votes indefinitely!” come the cries from the Obama corner.

But still the noise and pleading for Clinton continues: “come on people! Just two more votes now!”

“They’ve had enough time! Stop CHEATING! This is ridiculous!”

“This is DEMOCRACY!” comes back the cry. The Clinton rallier stalls further, counting heads. “I think we need a proper recount.” This is too much for the Obama supporters, feeling their victory is being indefinitely postponed. Boos start to ring out.

“Stop being so immature!” a middle-aged woman shouts at them, genuinely angry. Faces turn red, arguments continue. Finally the delegates are allocated: five to Obama, two to Edwards, (of whom one will eventually be for Kucinich, if the Kucinich defector so chooses).

The Obama students have won in incredible number - getting comfortably over 200 of the 381 votes. They flood out to the bars across the street, happy and ready for a beer. The Clinton youths shake their heads, while their more mature co-supporters wander off visibly bemused at the proceedings.

In the quickly emptying room, four of the Obama girls organising the team - all 18-21, all plastered in Obama stickers, badges and t-shirts - are doing that dance that only young women can do: shrieking with joy, holding each other by the forearms, and pogoing up and down. They’re the girls on the evening news who just got record-breaking exam results. It’s exactly the same image, except what’s got them so excited this time is the state-wide results coming in on mobile phones; with 85% of precincts reporting at that stage, Obama is seven points ahead of his rivals.

Julia from the co-operative bounds across the room looking pleased with her evening’s work: “I get to be a delegate! I’m going to Des Moines for the party - I was nominated as the Kucinich person from the Edwards camp!”

The Clinton organisers are deflated - and pretty surprised at the scale of their defeat.

As the tables are realigned, and the room returned to placid normality, Susanna Peters reappears. She was for Clinton, but doesn’t look unhappy.

“There’s one thing I wanted to say to you before, but got distracted. It’s that we can do all this…” she gestures at the room, the dust settling on three hours of organised chaos. “We can do all this, but the important thing is that everyone leaves peacefully at the end.”

It was touch-and-go for a while there in the middle, but she’s absolutely right.

arak0r
01-04-2008, 08:35 PM
It still says Kucinich has 0 delegates so I'm not sure what is up with that.

I hope Barack wins the democratic nomination. Barack/Edwards 08.i doubt edwards will play second fiddle to anyone again

Little_Miss_1565
01-05-2008, 09:07 AM
i'd be all over an obama/edwards ticket.

Seanykins, needs moar calling people cunts.

Mota Boy
01-05-2008, 09:09 AM
i doubt edwards will play second fiddle to anyone againWhy on Earth not? This is his last shot at relevancy.

Personally, I think Obama/Richardson would be amazing, though a real centrist, such as Warner or Bayh, would practically seal the deal in the event that Huckabee wins the Republican primary, as it would help cleave off the business half of the Republican party.

I love Huckabee, as he's exactly what the Republicans have been asking for since they started courting the evangelical vote with empty promises. This is nearly three decades of comeuppance in the making.

TBD
01-05-2008, 09:15 AM
Evan Bayh would be the perfect vice president to balance out the Obama ticket.

Richardson would only have a small shot at the vice president spot if Edwards won the democratic nomination I think.

XYlophonetreeZ
01-05-2008, 12:04 PM
Yeah, I'd love an Obama/Richardson tickets. And yes, Edwards would gladly accept a VP spot and I wouldn't be surprised if he even starts grooming himself for that position if he doesn't win a couple states soon, just like he did in '04. Edwards has a 100% track record of being quite the opportunist. Like Mota Boy said, it's his last shot at relevancy.

Llamas
01-05-2008, 12:48 PM
Okay, so I kind of get what the caucus is, but any chance someone would give me a quick explanation? I feel really dumb for not getting it/the point. I mean, what is the outcome of it? What effect does it have?

Regardless, I'm surprised any young voters voted for Clinton, after her shit about how people who study in Iowa but are from other states shouldn't vote because they don't count.

Apathy
01-06-2008, 07:34 PM
lol dubuque

lol you live in iowa

Moose
01-20-2008, 12:11 AM
why wold anyone want edwards on their ticket?...

sadly, it seems like the main democrat candidates are celebraties, rather than actual good and strong candidates...

...mccain anyone?

wheelchairman
01-21-2008, 02:24 PM
why wold anyone want edwards on their ticket?...

sadly, it seems like the main democrat candidates are celebraties, rather than actual good and strong candidates...

...mccain anyone?

Wow Moose you're really good at repeating what you hear from pundits....


OHMYGOD THEY RAISED TAXES OVER 20%

Moose
01-21-2008, 05:14 PM
Wow Moose you're really good at repeating what you hear from pundits....


OHMYGOD THEY RAISED TAXES OVER 20%


yup...that's exactly it...like always, you're flawless and correct.

Llamas
01-21-2008, 05:54 PM
"Thankfully, HIV/AIDS is a chronic disease" - Hilary Clinton, democratic debate.

WTF?? Did I and everyone else in this room misunderstand the context here?? What is wrong with this woman?

Shit Eater!!!
01-21-2008, 05:57 PM
Hilary's a bitch
Edwards is an incompetent jackass


The fact that these two have a chance of being our nation's president makes me wanna shit myself...mmm yummy!

Llamas
01-21-2008, 06:11 PM
Obama is the only worthy candidate in this debate... I hate Hilary more than ever right now, and Edwards is a moron.

Mota Boy
01-22-2008, 01:27 AM
sadly, it seems like the main democrat candidates are celebraties, rather than actual good and strong candidates...

...mccain anyone?...

I'm pretty sure that the only person in the race that is both a celebrity and a major candidate is/was Fred Thompson (note - Fred ran as a Republican).

Moose
01-22-2008, 03:16 PM
...

I'm pretty sure that the only person in the race that is both a celebrity and a major candidate is/was Fred Thompson (note - Fred ran as a Republican).

check the word, "seems"

wheelchairman
01-22-2008, 10:40 PM
Taxes Seem To Be Rising By 20%

Mota Boy
01-23-2008, 05:58 AM
check the word, "seems"But what the hell does that even mean, that the main Democratic candidates are famous?

Moose
01-23-2008, 10:22 AM
well, they are famous, but i guess it would mean how the media portrays them and how they act in public...Especially since they seemed like little babies at the last debate bickering back and forth, although it was entertaining. It seems they have more antics and games, than an actual foundation to help this country. They haven't said too much. I'm still curious as to how they would pay for universal healthcare and successfully remove troops from Iraq without too much of a problem.

Neither hillary or obama are suited to be president anyway. Not many people are, mccain may be one of the few, as of right now.

RickyCrack
01-23-2008, 12:07 PM
McCain and Giulianni aren't celebrities at all?