The NYT's uses the model from 2008 which uses a very unusual and high Dem turnout and makes a shit ton of assumptions. It is patently fucking pie in the sky bullshit. In 2008 there was democratic turnout of historic numbers. It was an anomoly. They assume it will be the same or even better in 2012. It won't be. The pollsters basically over sample the democrats and under sample republicans and the results are they poll anywhere from 8-15% more dems that republs. At the same time they sometimes use polling models in certain areas that are 40-50 years old that are known to be heavier replublican affiliation than it was 50 years ago. It can skew the hell out of anything. You see the result you want...obviously. This is why Rasmusson and to a lesser degree Gallup polls are inherently more accurate.
THAT FACE SAYS SO MUCH.
Lol so can we close this thread now? Lol jk lol
Yeah. It's over, I guess.
But politics itself isn't. I'll just make another thread with a less irrelevant poll. :)
See y'all in 4 years.
The guy behind jacknifes link, by the way, got every single state right.
I hereby proclaim an end to this thread. To think, we started with a miniscule campaign question, from back when Llamas still insulted me. We debated gay marriage ad nauseum, bashed Bush, bashed Obama more, and defended him vigorously. Then we made predictions, some of which were right, some of which were wrong. But what a thread! Dozens of pages, hundreds of posts, and many friends and enemies made. What a thread indeed.
I can't wait to start another thread like this in 4 years!
Will you have a fundementally flawed thread and poll title next time, just as you did this time?
He seems to have predicted each state right, but how did he get Obama 313, Romney 225? If the states were the same, the electoral numbers should match... but obviously they don't. Wtf?